Today's Predictions

Thursday, February 19, 2026 — Sample Data

Win probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per game using Markov chain + Elo ensemble model.

7:10 PM ET

Over 9.5 (58%) Proj: 4-5

NYY

43%

57%

BOS

9:45 PM ET

Over 9.5 (52%) Proj: 5-3

LAD

59%

41%

8:05 PM ET

Under 10.5 (62%) Proj: 3-4

HOU

47%

53%

TEX

6:40 PM ET

Over 9.5 (61%) Proj: 3-6

ATL

38%

62%

PHI

9:40 PM ET

Over 9.5 (55%) Proj: 4-4

50%

ARI

How It Works

⚡ Markov Chains

Every batter and pitcher has a 25-state transition matrix built from 10 seasons of play-by-play data. We simulate each at-bat probabilistically.

📊 Elo Ratings

Dynamic team ratings that update after every game, capturing momentum and strength of schedule. Blended 50/50 with Markov for best accuracy.

🎲 Monte Carlo

10,000 full game simulations per matchup. Win probabilities, score distributions, and over/under calls — all from the same engine.