Prediction Accuracy
3 seasons · 7,289 games backtested · Markov + Elo ensemble
7,289
Games Tested
53.7%
Win Accuracy
59.2%
High-Confidence Accuracy
Games where model confidence ≥ 60%
Season Breakdown
2025 2430 games
Win Prediction 53.6%
High Confidence (≥60%) 56.3%
183 games
2024 2429 games
Win Prediction 53.6%
High Confidence (≥60%) 61.1%
167 games
2023 2430 games
Win Prediction 53.7%
High Confidence (≥60%) 60.3%
214 games
Monthly Win Accuracy
Game-by-Game Results
| Date ↕ | Matchup | Confidence ↕ | Pick | Score | Result ↕ |
|---|
📋 About This Data
These are true backtested predictions — for each game, the model only used data available before that game was played. Player matrices are built from play-by-play data through the previous season; Elo ratings update game-by-game. No future information leaks into any prediction.